Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change

Chae Yeon Park (), Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee and Tomoko Hasegawa
Additional contact information
Chae Yeon Park: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Kiyoshi Takahashi: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Shinichiro Fujimori: Kyoto University
Thanapat Jansakoo: Kyoto University
Chantelle Burton: Met Office Hadley Centre
Huilin Huang: Atmospheric, Climate, and Earth Sciences Division
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht: Dalhousie University
Christopher P. O. Reyer: Member of the Leibniz Association
Matthias Mengel: Member of the Leibniz Association
Eleanor Burke: Met Office Hadley Centre
Fang Li: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Stijn Hantson: Universidad del Rosario
Junya Takakura: National Institute for Environmental Studies
Dong Kun Lee: Seoul National University
Tomoko Hasegawa: Ritsumeikan University

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 11, 1193-1200

Abstract: Abstract Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here we used three well-tested fire–vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions to climate change. Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual fire PM2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) to 12,566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, such as South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas.

Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02149-1 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcli:v:14:y:2024:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-024-02149-1

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Climate Change is currently edited by Bronwyn Wake

More articles in Nature Climate Change from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().