Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Freya C. Womersley (), Lara L. Sousa, Nicolas E. Humphries, Kátya Abrantes, Gonzalo Araujo, Steffen S. Bach, Adam Barnett, Michael L. Berumen, Sandra Bessudo Lion, Camrin D. Braun, Elizabeth Clingham, Jesse E. M. Cochran, Rafael Parra, Stella Diamant, Alistair D. M. Dove, Carlos M. Duarte, Christine L. Dudgeon, Mark V. Erdmann, Eduardo Espinoza, Luciana C. Ferreira, Richard Fitzpatrick, Jaime González Cano, Jonathan R. Green, Hector M. Guzman, Royale Hardenstine, Abdi Hasan, Fábio H. V. Hazin, Alex R. Hearn, Robert E. Hueter, Mohammed Y. Jaidah, Jessica Labaja, Felipe Ladino, Bruno C. L. Macena, Mark G. Meekan, John J. Morris, Bradley M. Norman, Cesar R. Peñaherrera-Palma, Simon J. Pierce, Lina Maria Quintero, Dení Ramírez-Macías, Samantha D. Reynolds, David P. Robinson, Christoph A. Rohner, David R. L. Rowat, Ana M. M. Sequeira, Marcus Sheaves, Mahmood S. Shivji, Abraham B. Sianipar, Gregory B. Skomal, German Soler, Ismail Syakurachman, Simon R. Thorrold, Michele Thums, John P. Tyminski, D. Harry Webb, Bradley M. Wetherbee, Nuno Queiroz and David W. Sims
Additional contact information
Freya C. Womersley: The Laboratory
Lara L. Sousa: University of Oxford
Nicolas E. Humphries: The Laboratory
Kátya Abrantes: James Cook University
Gonzalo Araujo: Marine Research and Conservation Foundation
Steffen S. Bach: Qatar Whale Shark Research Project
Adam Barnett: James Cook University
Michael L. Berumen: King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Sandra Bessudo Lion: Fundación Malpelo y Otros Ecosistemas Marinos
Camrin D. Braun: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Elizabeth Clingham: St Helena Government
Jesse E. M. Cochran: King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Rafael Parra: Ch’ooj Ajuail AC
Stella Diamant: Madagascar Whale Shark Project
Alistair D. M. Dove: Georgia Aquarium
Carlos M. Duarte: King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Christine L. Dudgeon: Biopixel Oceans Foundation
Mark V. Erdmann: University of Auckland
Eduardo Espinoza: MigraMar
Luciana C. Ferreira: University of Western Australia
Richard Fitzpatrick: James Cook University
Jaime González Cano: Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas
Jonathan R. Green: Galapagos Whale Shark Project
Hector M. Guzman: MigraMar
Royale Hardenstine: King Abdullah University of Science and Technology
Abdi Hasan: Konservasi Indonesia Raja Ampat
Fábio H. V. Hazin: UFRPE
Alex R. Hearn: MigraMar
Robert E. Hueter: Mote Marine Laboratory
Mohammed Y. Jaidah: Qatar Whale Shark Research Project
Jessica Labaja: Large Marine Vertebrates Research Institute Philippines
Felipe Ladino: Fundación Malpelo y Otros Ecosistemas Marinos
Bruno C. L. Macena: University of the Azores
Mark G. Meekan: University of Western Australia
John J. Morris: Mote Marine Laboratory
Bradley M. Norman: Murdoch University
Cesar R. Peñaherrera-Palma: MigraMar
Simon J. Pierce: Marine Megafauna Foundation
Lina Maria Quintero: Fundación Malpelo y Otros Ecosistemas Marinos
Dení Ramírez-Macías: El Centenario
Samantha D. Reynolds: Serpentine
David P. Robinson: Qatar Whale Shark Research Project
Christoph A. Rohner: Marine Megafauna Foundation
David R. L. Rowat: Transvaal House
Ana M. M. Sequeira: The Australian National University
Marcus Sheaves: James Cook University
Mahmood S. Shivji: Nova Southeastern University
Abraham B. Sianipar: Elasmobranch Institute Indonesia
Gregory B. Skomal: Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries
German Soler: Fundación Malpelo y Otros Ecosistemas Marinos
Ismail Syakurachman: Konservasi Indonesia
Simon R. Thorrold: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Michele Thums: University of Western Australia
John P. Tyminski: Mote Marine Laboratory
D. Harry Webb: Georgia Aquarium
Bradley M. Wetherbee: Nova Southeastern University
Nuno Queiroz: Universidade do Porto
David W. Sims: The Laboratory

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 12, 1282-1291

Abstract: Abstract Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world’s largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species’ co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr−1). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

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