A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change

Johannes Emmerling (), Pietro Andreoni, Ioannis Charalampidis, Shouro Dasgupta, Francis Dennig, Simon Feindt, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Panagiotis Fragkos, Shinichiro Fujimori, Martino Gilli, Carolina Grottera, Celine Guivarch, Ulrike Kornek, Elmar Kriegler, Daniele Malerba, Giacomo Marangoni, Aurélie Méjean, Femke Nijsse, Franziska Piontek, Yeliz Simsek, Bjoern Soergel, Nicolas Taconet, Toon Vandyck, Marie Young-Brun, Shiya Zhao, Yu Zheng and Massimo Tavoni ()
Additional contact information
Johannes Emmerling: CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Pietro Andreoni: CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change
Ioannis Charalampidis: E3Modelling
Shouro Dasgupta: Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
Francis Dennig: United Nations Development Programme
Simon Feindt: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
Dimitris Fragkiadakis: E3Modelling
Panagiotis Fragkos: E3Modelling
Shinichiro Fujimori: Kyoto University
Martino Gilli: RFF–CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
Carolina Grottera: Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (CentroClima/PPE/COPPE/UFRJ)
Celine Guivarch: Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED)
Ulrike Kornek: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)
Elmar Kriegler: Member of the Leibniz Association
Daniele Malerba: German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Giacomo Marangoni: RFF–CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
Aurélie Méjean: Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED)
Femke Nijsse: University of Exeter
Franziska Piontek: Member of the Leibniz Association
Yeliz Simsek: University of Exeter
Bjoern Soergel: Member of the Leibniz Association
Nicolas Taconet: Member of the Leibniz Association
Toon Vandyck: KU Leuven
Marie Young-Brun: Halle Institute for Economic Research
Shiya Zhao: Kyoto University
Yu Zheng: Centre d’Études Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Massimo Tavoni: CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 12, 1254-1260

Abstract: Abstract Climate change and inequality are critical and interrelated issues. Despite growing empirical evidence on the distributional implications of climate policies and climate risks, mainstream model-based assessments are often silent on the interplay between climate change and economic inequality. Here we fill this gap through an ensemble of eight large-scale integrated assessment models that belong to different economic paradigms and feature income heterogeneity. We quantify the distributional implications of climate impacts and of the varying compensation schemes of climate policies compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. By 2100, climate impacts will increase inequality by 1.4 points of the Gini index on average. Maintaining global mean temperature below 1.5 °C reduces long-term inequality increase by two-thirds but increases it slightly in the short term. However, equal per-capita redistribution can offset the short-term effect, lowering the Gini index by almost two points. We quantify model uncertainty and find robust evidence that well-designed policies can help stabilize climate and promote economic inclusion.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02151-7

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