Global exposure risk of frogs to increasing environmental dryness

Nicholas C. Wu (), Rafael Parelli Bovo, Urtzi Enriquez-Urzelai, Susana Clusella-Trullas, Michael R. Kearney, Carlos A. Navas and Jacinta D. Kong
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Nicholas C. Wu: Western Sydney University
Rafael Parelli Bovo: Universidade de São Paulo
Urtzi Enriquez-Urzelai: Institute of Vertebrate Biology
Susana Clusella-Trullas: Stellenbosch University
Michael R. Kearney: The University of Melbourne
Carlos A. Navas: Universidade de São Paulo
Jacinta D. Kong: Trinity College Dublin

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 12, 1314-1322

Abstract: Abstract Compared with the risks associated with climate warming and extremes, the risks of climate-induced drying to animal species remain understudied. This is particularly true for water-sensitive groups, such as anurans (frogs and toads), whose long-term survival must be considered in the context of both environmental changes and species sensitivity. Here, we mapped global areas where anurans will face increasing water limitations, analysed ecotype sensitivity to water loss and modelled behavioural activity impacts under future climate change scenarios. Predictions indicate that 6.6–33.6% of anuran habitats will become arid like by 2080–2100, with 15.4–36.1% exposed to worsening drought, under an intermediate- and high-emission scenario, respectively. Arid conditions are expected to double water loss rates, and combined drought and warming will double reductions in anuran activity compared with warming impacts alone by 2080–2100. These findings underscore the pervasive synergistic threat of warming and environmental drying to anurans.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z

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