Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action

Michael Dietze (), Ethan P. White, Antoinette Abeyta, Carl Boettiger, Nievita Bueno Watts, Cayelan C. Carey, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer, Ryan E. Emanuel, S. K. Morgan Ernest, Renato J. Figueiredo, Michael D. Gerst, Leah R. Johnson, Melissa A. Kenney, Jason S. McLachlan, Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis, Jody A. Peters, Christine R. Rollinson, Juniper Simonis, Kira Sullivan-Wiley, R. Quinn Thomas, Glenda M. Wardle, Alyssa M. Willson and Jacob Zwart
Additional contact information
Michael Dietze: Boston University
Ethan P. White: University of Florida
Antoinette Abeyta: University of New Mexico Gallup
Carl Boettiger: University of California, Berkeley
Nievita Bueno Watts: Cal Poly Humboldt
Cayelan C. Carey: Virginia Tech
Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer: WWF
Ryan E. Emanuel: Duke University
S. K. Morgan Ernest: University of Florida
Renato J. Figueiredo: Oregon State University
Michael D. Gerst: University of Maryland
Leah R. Johnson: Virginia Tech
Melissa A. Kenney: University of Minnesota
Jason S. McLachlan: University of Notre Dame
Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis: Boston University
Jody A. Peters: University of Notre Dame
Christine R. Rollinson: The Morton Arboretum
Juniper Simonis: DAPPER Stats
Kira Sullivan-Wiley: The Pew Charitable Trusts
R. Quinn Thomas: Virginia Tech
Glenda M. Wardle: University of Sydney
Alyssa M. Willson: University of Notre Dame
Jacob Zwart: Water Mission Area, US Geological Survey

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 12, 1236-1244

Abstract: Abstract A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02182-0

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