Increase in MJO predictability under global warming

Danni Du (), Aneesh C. Subramanian, Weiqing Han, William E. Chapman, Jeffrey B. Weiss and Elizabeth Bradley
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Danni Du: University of Colorado
Aneesh C. Subramanian: University of Colorado
Weiqing Han: University of Colorado
William E. Chapman: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Jeffrey B. Weiss: University of Colorado
Elizabeth Bradley: University of Colorado

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 1, 68-74

Abstract: Abstract The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant source of subseasonal atmospheric variability in the tropics and significantly impacts global weather and climate predictability. Changes in its activity and predictability due to human-induced global climate change have profound implications for future global weather prediction. Here we investigate changes in MJO predictability in reanalysis and climate model data and find that MJO predictability has increased over the past century. This increase can be attributed to anthropogenic warming and continues during the twenty-first century in projections. The increased predictability is accompanied by stronger MJO amplitude, more regular oscillation patterns and organized eastward propagation under global warming. Our results suggest that greenhouse warming will increase the predictability of the MJO, with far-reaching consequences for global weather prediction.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01885-0

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