The social costs of hydrofluorocarbons and the benefits from their expedited phase-down

Tammy Tan, Lisa Rennels and Bryan Parthum ()
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Tammy Tan: National Bureau of Economic Research
Lisa Rennels: University of California
Bryan Parthum: US EPA

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 1, 55-60

Abstract: Abstract Hydrofluorocarbons are a potent greenhouse gas, yet there remains a lack of quantitative estimates of their social cost. The present study addresses this gap by directly calculating the social cost of hydrofluorocarbons (SC-HFCs) using perturbations of exogenous inputs to integrated assessment models. We first develop a set of direct estimates of the SC-HFCs using methods currently adopted by the United States Government and then derive updated estimates that incorporate recent advances in climate science and economics. We compare our estimates with commonly used social cost approximations based on global warming potentials to show that the latter is a poor proxy for direct calculation of hydrofluorocarbon emissions impacts using integrated assessment models. Applying our SC-HFCs to the Kigali Amendment, a global agreement to phase down HFCs, we estimate that it provides US$202037 trillion in climate benefits over its lifetime. Expediting the phase-down could increase the estimated climate benefits to US$202041 trillion.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01898-9

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