Intensification of Pacific tropical instability waves over the recent three decades

Minyang Wang, Shang-Ping Xie (), Hideharu Sasaki, Masami Nonaka and Yan Du ()
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Minyang Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Shang-Ping Xie: University of California San Diego
Hideharu Sasaki: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Masami Nonaka: Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Yan Du: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 2, 163-170

Abstract: Abstract Tropical instability waves (TIWs) arise from shear instabilities of equatorial Pacific Ocean currents and are important for the tropical climate and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Yet the long-term evolution of TIW activity under climate change remains unclear due to the difficulty in estimating equatorial current velocity. Here we use in situ, satellite altimeter and sea surface temperature observations along with a realistic eddy-resolving ocean simulation to show that TIW activity has intensified in the central equatorial Pacific at ∼12 ± 6% per decade over the recent three decades. The extended satellite data and the ocean model simulation show that the increased TIW activity is probably caused by an enhanced cross-equatorial asymmetric warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. The intensified TIWs lead to increased eddy dynamic heating effects of ∼70% since the 1990s near the equator, with implications for predicting and projecting tropical Pacific climate changes.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01915-x

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