Emergent climate change patterns originating from deep ocean warming in climate mitigation scenarios

Ji-Hoon Oh, Jong-Seong Kug (), Soon-Il An, Fei-Fei Jin, Michael J. McPhaden and Jongsoo Shin
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Ji-Hoon Oh: Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
Jong-Seong Kug: Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
Soon-Il An: Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)
Fei-Fei Jin: University of Hawaii
Michael J. McPhaden: NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
Jongsoo Shin: Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 3, 260-266

Abstract: Abstract The global oceans absorb most of the surplus heat from anthropogenic warming, but it is unclear how this heat accumulation will affect the Earth’s climate under climate mitigation scenarios. Here we show that this stored heat will be released at a much slower rate than its accumulation, resulting in a robust pattern of surface ocean warming and consequent regional precipitation. The surface ocean warming is pronounced over subpolar to polar regions and the equatorial eastern Pacific where oceans are weakly stratified to allow vigorous heat release from the deep ocean to the surface layer. We also demonstrate that this ocean warming pattern largely explains changes in the precipitation pattern, including the southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and more moistening in high latitudes. This study suggests that deep ocean warming may hinder climate recovery in some regions, even if carbon neutrality or net negative emissions are successfully achieved.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-01928-0

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