Climate change will impact the value and optimal adoption of residential rooftop solar

Mai Shi, Xi Lu () and Michael T. Craig ()
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Mai Shi: Tsinghua University
Xi Lu: Tsinghua University
Michael T. Craig: University of Michigan

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 5, 482-489

Abstract: Abstract Rooftop solar adoption is critical for residential decarbonization and hinges on its value to households. Climate change will probably affect the value of rooftop solar through impacts on rooftop solar generation and cooling demand, but no studies have quantified this effect. In this study, we quantified household-level effects of climate change on rooftop solar value and techno-economically optimal capacity by integrating empirical demand data for over 2,000 US households across 17 cities, household-level simulation and optimization models, and downscaled weather data for historic and future climates. We found that climate change will increase the value of rooftop solar to households by up to 19% and increase techno-economically optimal household capacity by up to 25% by the end of the century under a Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario. This increased value is robust across cities, households, future warming scenarios and retail tariff structures. Researchers, installers and policymakers should capture this increasing value to maximize household and system value of rooftop solar.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-01978-4

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