International shipping in a world below 2 °C

Eduardo Müller-Casseres, Florian Leblanc, Maarten Berg, Panagiotis Fragkos, Olivier Dessens, Hesam Naghash, Rebecca Draeger, Thomas Gallic, Isabela S. Tagomori, Ioannis Tsiropoulos, Johannes Emmerling, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Detlef P. Vuuren, Anastasis Giannousakis, Laurent Drouet, Joana Portugal-Pereira, Harmen-Sytze Boer, Nikolaos Tsanakas, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Alexandre Szklo and Roberto Schaeffer ()
Additional contact information
Eduardo Müller-Casseres: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Florian Leblanc: CIRED
Maarten Berg: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Panagiotis Fragkos: E3Modelling
Olivier Dessens: University College London (UCL)
Hesam Naghash: Delft University of Technology
Rebecca Draeger: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Thomas Gallic: CIRED
Isabela S. Tagomori: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Ioannis Tsiropoulos: E3Modelling
Johannes Emmerling: RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE)
Luiz Bernardo Baptista: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Detlef P. Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Anastasis Giannousakis: E3Modelling
Laurent Drouet: RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE)
Joana Portugal-Pereira: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Harmen-Sytze Boer: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Nikolaos Tsanakas: E3Modelling
Pedro R. R. Rochedo: Khalifa University
Alexandre Szklo: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
Roberto Schaeffer: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 6, 600-607

Abstract: Abstract The decarbonization of shipping has become an important policy goal. While integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for emissions of around 0.7 GtCO2 yr−1. Here we perform a multi-IAM analysis of international shipping and show the potential for decreasing annual emissions in the next decades, with reductions of up to 86% by 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonization of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes for conventional maritime fuels. While our results align with the 2018 emission reduction goal of the International Maritime Organization, their compatibility with the agency’s revised target is still subject to a more definitive interpretation.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-01997-1

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