No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point

Jan Nitzbon (), Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Mehriban Aliyeva, Sarah E. Chadburn, Guido Grosse, Sebastian Laboor, Hanna Lee, Gerrit Lohmann, Norman J. Steinert, Simone M. Stuenzi, Martin Werner, Sebastian Westermann and Moritz Langer
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Jan Nitzbon: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Thomas Schneider von Deimling: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Mehriban Aliyeva: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Sarah E. Chadburn: University of Exeter
Guido Grosse: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Sebastian Laboor: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Hanna Lee: Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Gerrit Lohmann: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Norman J. Steinert: NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS
Simone M. Stuenzi: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Martin Werner: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Sebastian Westermann: University of Oslo
Moritz Langer: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 6, 573-585

Abstract: Abstract Arctic permafrost, the largest non-seasonal component of Earth’s cryosphere, contains a substantial climate-sensitive carbon pool. The existence of a global tipping point, a warming threshold beyond which permafrost thaw would accelerate and become self-perpetuating, remains debated. Here we provide an integrative Perspective on this question, suggesting that despite several permafrost-thaw feedbacks driving rapid thaw and irreversible ground-ice loss at local to regional scales, the accumulated response of Arctic permafrost to climate warming remains quasilinear. We argue that in the absence of a global tipping point there is no safety margin within which permafrost loss would be acceptable. Instead, each increment of global warming subjects more land areas underlain by permafrost to thaw, causing detrimental local impacts and global feedbacks.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4

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