Assisted tree migration can preserve the European forest carbon sink under climate change

Debojyoti Chakraborty, Albert Ciceu, Dalibor Ballian, Marta Benito Garzón, Andreas Bolte, Gregor Bozic, Rafael Buchacher, Jaroslav Čepl, Eva Cremer, Alexis Ducousso, Julian Gaviria, Jan Peter George, André Hardtke, Mladen Ivankovic, Marcin Klisz, Jan Kowalczyk, Antoine Kremer, Milan Lstibůrek, Roman Longauer, Georgeta Mihai, László Nagy, Krasimira Petkova, Emil Popov, Randolf Schirmer, Tore Skrøppa, Thomas Mørtvedt Solvin, Arne Steffenrem, Jan Stejskal, Srdjan Stojnic, Katharina Volmer and Silvio Schueler ()
Additional contact information
Debojyoti Chakraborty: Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW)
Albert Ciceu: Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW)
Dalibor Ballian: University of Sarajevo
Marta Benito Garzón: University of Bordeaux
Andreas Bolte: Thünen Institute of Forest Ecosystems
Gregor Bozic: Slovenian Forestry Institute (SFI)
Rafael Buchacher: Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW)
Jaroslav Čepl: Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Eva Cremer: Bavarian Office for Forest Genetics (AWG)
Alexis Ducousso: University of Bordeaux
Julian Gaviria: Bavarian Office for Forest Genetics (AWG)
Jan Peter George: Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW)
André Hardtke: Northwest German Forest Research Institute (NW-FVA)
Mladen Ivankovic: Croatian Forest Research Institute
Marcin Klisz: Forest Research Institute (IBL)
Jan Kowalczyk: Forest Research Institute (IBL)
Antoine Kremer: University of Bordeaux
Milan Lstibůrek: Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Roman Longauer: National Forest Centre
Georgeta Mihai: ‘Marin Dracea’ National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry
László Nagy: University of Sopron
Krasimira Petkova: University of Forestry
Emil Popov: Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Randolf Schirmer: Bavarian Office for Forest Genetics (AWG)
Tore Skrøppa: Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO)
Thomas Mørtvedt Solvin: Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO)
Arne Steffenrem: Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO)
Jan Stejskal: Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Srdjan Stojnic: University of Novi Sad
Katharina Volmer: Northwest German Forest Research Institute (NW-FVA)
Silvio Schueler: Austrian Research Centre for Forests (BFW)

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 8, 845-852

Abstract: Abstract Climate change threatens the role of European forests as a long-term carbon sink. Assisted migration aims to increase the resilience of forest tree populations to climate change, using species-specific climatic limits and local adaptations through transferring seed provenances. We modelled assisted migration scenarios for seven main European tree species and analysed the effects of species and seed provenance selection, accounting for environmental and genetic variations, on the annual above-ground carbon sink of regrowing juvenile forests. To increase forest resilience, coniferous trees need to be replaced by deciduous species over large parts of their distribution. If local seed provenances are used, this would result in a decrease of the current carbon sink (40 TgC yr−1) by 34–41% by 2061–2080. However, if seed provenances adapted to future climates are used, current sinks could be maintained or even increased to 48–60 TgC yr−1.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02080-5

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