Reduced Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake due to coastal permafrost erosion

David M. Nielsen (), Fatemeh Chegini, Joeran Maerz, Sebastian Brune, Moritz Mathis, Mikhail Dobrynin, Johanna Baehr, Victor Brovkin and Tatiana Ilyina
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David M. Nielsen: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Fatemeh Chegini: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Joeran Maerz: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Sebastian Brune: Universität Hamburg
Moritz Mathis: Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon
Mikhail Dobrynin: Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)
Johanna Baehr: Universität Hamburg
Victor Brovkin: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Tatiana Ilyina: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

Nature Climate Change, 2024, vol. 14, issue 9, 968-975

Abstract: Abstract Arctic coastal permafrost erosion is projected to increase by a factor of 2–3 by 2100. However, organic matter fluxes from the coastal permafrost into the ocean have not been considered in Earth system models so far. Here we represent coastal permafrost erosion in an Earth system model and perform simulations with varying permafrost organic matter properties, such as sinking fraction and nutrient content. We find that coastal erosion reduces the Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake from the atmosphere in all simulations: by 4.6–13.2 TgC yr−1 by 2100, which is ~7–14% of the Inner Arctic Ocean uptake. We show that coastal permafrost erosion exerts a positive biogeochemical feedback on climate, increasing atmospheric CO2 by 1–2 TgC yr−1 per °C of increase in global surface air temperature. Our work will allow coastal permafrost erosion to be considered in future climate change assessments.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02074-3

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