Rising cost of disturbances for forestry in Europe under climate change

Johannes S. Mohr (), Félix Bastit, Marc Grünig, Thomas Knoke, Werner Rammer, Cornelius Senf, Dominik Thom and Rupert Seidl
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Johannes S. Mohr: Technical University of Munich (TUM)
Félix Bastit: Université de Lorraine, Université de Strasbourg, AgroParisTech, CNRS, INRAE
Marc Grünig: Technical University of Munich (TUM)
Thomas Knoke: Technical University of Munich (TUM)
Werner Rammer: Technical University of Munich (TUM)
Cornelius Senf: Technical University of Munich (TUM)
Dominik Thom: TUD Dresden University of Technology
Rupert Seidl: Technical University of Munich (TUM)

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 10, 1078-1083

Abstract: Abstract Climate change has large economic costs for society. An important effect is the disruption of natural resource supply by climate-mediated disturbances such as wildfires, pest outbreaks and storms. Here we show that disturbance-induced losses for Europe’s timber-based forestry could increase from the current €115 billion to €247 billion under severe climate change. This would diminish the timber value of Europe’s forests by up to 42% and reduce the current gross value added of the forestry sector by up to 15%. Central Europe emerges as a continental hotspot of disturbance costs, with projected future costs of up to €19,885 per hectare. Simultaneous climate-related increases in forest productivity could offset future economic losses from disturbances in Northern and Central Europe but not in Southern Europe. We find high disturbance-related cost of unmitigated warming, highlighting that climate change adaptation in forestry is not only an ecological but also an economic imperative.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02408-9

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