Progress and future directions in constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations

Denis Felikson (), David R. Rounce, John Fasullo, Angelica Rodriguez, Surendra Adhikari, Brett Buzzanga, Sönke Dangendorf, Robert E. Kopp, Richard B. Lammers, J. T. Reager, Doug Brinkerhoff, Beata Csatho, Manuela Girotto, Benjamin Hamlington, Erik R. Ivins, Praveen Kumar, Eric Larour, R. Steven Nerem, Sophie Nowicki, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Jan-Erik Tesdal and Matthew Weathers
Additional contact information
Denis Felikson: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
David R. Rounce: Carnegie Mellon University
John Fasullo: National Science Foundation
Angelica Rodriguez: California Institute of Technology
Surendra Adhikari: California Institute of Technology
Brett Buzzanga: California Institute of Technology
Sönke Dangendorf: Tulane University
Robert E. Kopp: Rutgers University
Richard B. Lammers: University of New Hampshire
J. T. Reager: California Institute of Technology
Doug Brinkerhoff: University of Montana
Beata Csatho: University at Buffalo
Manuela Girotto: University of California Berkeley
Benjamin Hamlington: California Institute of Technology
Erik R. Ivins: California Institute of Technology
Praveen Kumar: Rutgers University
Eric Larour: California Institute of Technology
R. Steven Nerem: University of Colorado
Sophie Nowicki: University at Buffalo
Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel: NOAA/OAR Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Jan-Erik Tesdal: Princeton University
Matthew Weathers: Carnegie Mellon University

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 10, 1039-1051

Abstract: Abstract Coastal planning, mitigation and adaptation efforts rely on credible sea-level projections generated by physical models. However, the large uncertainties in these projections pose a challenge for policymakers. Here we provide an overview of the main sources of uncertainty in model projections of sea-level change on multi-decadal to centennial timescales and we offer perspectives on the use of observations to narrow uncertainties. We propose several directions for future research, including improvements in emerging emulation techniques, more systematic quantification of uncertainty structure within both observations and models, lengthening observational records of processes, and expanding collaborations across physical and social sciences. Advancements in these areas are urgently needed, as the next phase of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment cycle gets underway.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02437-4

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