Development policy affects coastal flood exposure in China more than sea-level rise

Yafei Wang (), Yuxuan Ye, Robert J. Nicholls, Lennart Olsson, Detlef P. Vuuren, Garry Peterson, Yao He, Manchun Li, Jie Fan and Murray Scown ()
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Yafei Wang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Yuxuan Ye: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Robert J. Nicholls: University of East Anglia
Lennart Olsson: Lund University
Detlef P. Vuuren: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Garry Peterson: Stockholm University
Yao He: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Manchun Li: Nanjing University
Jie Fan: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Murray Scown: Lund University

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 10, 1071-1077

Abstract: Abstract Effective coastal exposure assessments are crucial for adaptively managing threats from sea-level rise (SLR). Despite recent advances, global and regional assessments are constrained by omitting critical factors such as land-use change, failing to disaggregate potential impacts by land uses and oversimplifying land subsidence. Here we address these gaps by developing context-specific scenarios to 2100 based on a comprehensive analysis of Chinese coastal development policies. We integrate high-resolution simulations of population and land-system changes with inundation exposure assessments that incorporate SLR, land subsidence, tides and storm surges, offering a more nuanced understanding of coastal risks. Across our plausible set of downscaled scenarios of shared socioeconomic and representative concentration pathways, policy decisions have a bigger effect on what is exposed to coastal flooding until 2100 than does the magnitude of SLR. Hence, coastal policy decisions largely influence coastal risk and adaptation needs to 2100, demonstrating the necessity of appropriate policy design to manage coastal risks.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02439-2

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