Critical intervention points for European adaptation to cascading climate change impacts

Cornelia Auer (), Christopher P. O. Reyer, Weronika Adamczak, Chris Aylett, Magnus Benzie, Jan Philipp Berndt, David N. Bresch, Francesco Bosello, Giacomo Bressan, Timothy R. Carter, Simon Croft, Elisa Delpiazzo, Sophie Desmidt, Adrien Detges, Anja Duranovic, Stefan Fronzek, Katy Harris, Mikael Hildén, Lukasz Jarzabek, Ramon Key, Richard King, Paula Kivimaa, Richard J. T. Klein, Hanne Knaepen, Glada Lahn, Piotr Magnuszewski, Mikael Mikaelsson, Irene Monasterolo, Claire Mosoni, Ilona M. Otto, Ramiro Parrado, Samuli Pitzen, Benjamin Pohl, Oriol Puig, Hetty Saes-Heibel, Emilie Stokeld, Sara Talebian, Fabien Tondel, Ruth Townend, Chris West, Eckart Woertz and Nico Wunderling
Additional contact information
Cornelia Auer: Member of the Leibniz Association
Christopher P. O. Reyer: Member of the Leibniz Association
Weronika Adamczak: Centre for Systems Solutions
Chris Aylett: Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs
Magnus Benzie: Oxford Eco Centre
Jan Philipp Berndt: Lund University
David N. Bresch: ETH Zurich
Francesco Bosello: Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
Giacomo Bressan: Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU Wien)
Timothy R. Carter: Finnish Environment Institute (Syke)
Simon Croft: University of York
Elisa Delpiazzo: Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
Sophie Desmidt: European Centre for Development Policy Management
Adrien Detges: adelphi Research
Anja Duranovic: Utrecht University
Stefan Fronzek: Finnish Environment Institute (Syke)
Katy Harris: Stockholm Environment Institute
Mikael Hildén: Finnish Environment Institute (Syke)
Lukasz Jarzabek: Centre for Systems Solutions
Ramon Key: Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
Richard King: Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs
Paula Kivimaa: Finnish Environment Institute (Syke)
Richard J. T. Klein: Stockholm Environment Institute
Hanne Knaepen: European Centre for Development Policy Management
Glada Lahn: Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs
Piotr Magnuszewski: Centre for Systems Solutions
Mikael Mikaelsson: Stockholm Environment Institute
Irene Monasterolo: Utrecht University
Claire Mosoni: Finnish Environment Institute (Syke)
Ilona M. Otto: University of Graz
Ramiro Parrado: Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
Samuli Pitzen: Finnish Environment Institute (Syke)
Benjamin Pohl: adelphi Research
Oriol Puig: Pompeu Fabra University
Hetty Saes-Heibel: Member of the Leibniz Association
Emilie Stokeld: University of York
Sara Talebian: Stockholm Environment Institute
Fabien Tondel: Meta Practica
Ruth Townend: Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs
Chris West: University of York
Eckart Woertz: German Institute for Global and Area Studies
Nico Wunderling: Member of the Leibniz Association

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 11, 1226-1233

Abstract: Abstract In an interconnected world, climate change impacts can cascade across sectors and regions, creating systemic risks. Here we analyse cascading climate change impacts on the EU, originating from outside the region, and identify critical intervention points for adaptation. Using network analysis, we integrate stakeholder-co-produced impact chains with quantitative data for 102 countries across foreign policy, human security, trade and finance. Our archetypal impact cascade model reveals critical intervention points related to water, livelihoods, agriculture, infrastructure and economy, and violent conflict. Livelihood instability, with violence exacerbating conditions in conflict-prone regions, tends to amplify risks of cascading impacts emerging from low-income countries. High-income countries can trigger cascading impacts through, for example, reduced crop exports. Our findings highlight the importance of policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities rather than isolated risks. Thus, agricultural intensification without integrated water management may exacerbate scarcity, whereas safeguarding livelihoods alleviates cascading risks related to forced migration, violent conflict and instability.

Date: 2025
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02455-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:11:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02455-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02455-2

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Climate Change is currently edited by Bronwyn Wake

More articles in Nature Climate Change from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().