Projections of multiple climate-related coastal hazards for the US Southeast Atlantic

Patrick L. Barnard (), Kevin M. Befus, Jeffrey J. Danielson, Anita C. Engelstad, Li H. Erikson, Amy C. Foxgrover, Maya K. Hayden, Daniel J. Hoover, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Chris Massey, Robert McCall, Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo, Kees Nederhoff, Andrea C. O’Neill, Kai A. Parker, Manoochehr Shirzaei, Leonard O. Ohenhen, Peter W. Swarzenski, Jennifer A. Thomas, Maarten Ormondt, Sean Vitousek, Kilian Vos, Nathan J. Wood, Jeanne M. Jones and Jamie L. Jones
Additional contact information
Patrick L. Barnard: U.S. Geological Survey
Kevin M. Befus: University of Arkansas
Jeffrey J. Danielson: U.S. Geological Survey
Anita C. Engelstad: U.S. Geological Survey
Li H. Erikson: U.S. Geological Survey
Amy C. Foxgrover: U.S. Geological Survey
Maya K. Hayden: U.S. Geological Survey
Daniel J. Hoover: U.S. Geological Survey
Tim W. B. Leijnse: Deltares
Chris Massey: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Robert McCall: Deltares USA
Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Kees Nederhoff: Deltares USA
Andrea C. O’Neill: U.S. Geological Survey
Kai A. Parker: U.S. Geological Survey
Manoochehr Shirzaei: Virginia Tech
Leonard O. Ohenhen: Virginia Tech
Peter W. Swarzenski: U.S. Geological Survey
Jennifer A. Thomas: U.S. Geological Survey
Maarten Ormondt: Deltares USA
Sean Vitousek: U.S. Geological Survey
Kilian Vos: UNSW Sydney
Nathan J. Wood: U.S. Geological Survey
Jeanne M. Jones: U.S. Geological Survey
Jamie L. Jones: U.S. Geological Survey

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 1, 101-109

Abstract: Abstract Faced with accelerating sea level rise and changing ocean storm conditions, coastal communities require comprehensive assessments of climate-driven hazard impacts to inform adaptation measures. Previous studies have focused on flooding but rarely on other climate-related coastal hazards, such as subsidence, beach erosion and groundwater. Here, we project societal exposure to multiple hazards along the Southeast Atlantic coast of the United States. Assuming 1 m of sea level rise, more than 70% of the coastal residents and US$1 trillion in property are in areas projected to experience shallow and emerging groundwater, 15 times higher than daily flooding. Storms increase flooding exposure by an order of magnitude over daily flooding, which could impact up to ~50% of all coastal residents and US$770 billion in property value. The loss of up to ~80% of present-day beaches and high subsidence rates that currently affect over 1 million residents will exacerbate flooding and groundwater hazard risks.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02180-2

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