Energy and socioeconomic system transformation through a decade of IPCC-assessed scenarios

D. J. Ven (), S. Mittal, A. Nikas, G. Xexakis, A. Gambhir, L. Hermwille, P. Fragkos, W. Obergassel, M. Gonzalez-Eguino, F. Filippidou, I. Sognnaes, L. Clarke and G. P. Peters
Additional contact information
D. J. Ven: Basque Centre for Climate Change
S. Mittal: Imperial College
A. Nikas: National Technical University of Athens
G. Xexakis: HOLISTIC
A. Gambhir: Imperial College
L. Hermwille: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy
P. Fragkos: E3 Modelling
W. Obergassel: Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy
M. Gonzalez-Eguino: Basque Centre for Climate Change
F. Filippidou: E3 Modelling
I. Sognnaes: CICERO Center for International Climate Research
L. Clarke: Bezos Earth Fund
G. P. Peters: CICERO Center for International Climate Research

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 2, 218-226

Abstract: Abstract Charting future emissions pathways is a central tenet of IPCC assessment reports (AR), yet it is unclear how underlying drivers (including around policy and technology) have influenced the evolution of emissions pathways. Here we compare scenarios in AR5 and AR6 and find that scenarios without specific climate policies enforced have shifted lower in each scenario generation, owing to falling low-carbon technology costs and reduced expectations for economic growth, reducing fossil-fuel shares in energy and industry. Mitigation pathways consistent with 1.5–2 °C have seen increasing electrification rates and higher shares of variable renewables in electricity in more recent scenario generations, implying reduced reliance on coal, nuclear, bioenergy and carbon capture and storage, reflecting changing costs. Despite the shrinking carbon budget due to insufficient recent climate action, mitigation costs have not increased given more optimistic low-carbon technology cost projections. Moving forward, scenario producers must continually recalibrate to keep abreast of technology, policy and societal developments to remain policy relevant.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02198-6

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