Climate change and terrigenous inputs decrease the efficiency of the future Arctic Ocean’s biological carbon pump

Laurent Oziel (), Özgür Gürses, Sinhué Torres-Valdés, Clara J. M. Hoppe, Björn Rost, Onur Karakuş, Christopher Danek, Boris P. Koch, Cara Nissen, Nikolay Koldunov, Qiang Wang, Christoph Völker, Morten Iversen, Bennet Juhls and Judith Hauck
Additional contact information
Laurent Oziel: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Özgür Gürses: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Sinhué Torres-Valdés: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Clara J. M. Hoppe: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Björn Rost: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Onur Karakuş: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Christopher Danek: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Boris P. Koch: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Cara Nissen: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Nikolay Koldunov: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Qiang Wang: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Christoph Völker: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Morten Iversen: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Bennet Juhls: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Judith Hauck: Alfred-Wegener-Institut - Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 2, 171-179

Abstract: Abstract The Arctic experiences climate changes that are among the fastest in the world and affect all Earth system components. Despite expected increase in terrigenous inputs to the Arctic Ocean, their impacts on biogeochemical cycles are currently largely neglected in IPCC-like models. Here we used a state-of-the-art high-resolution ocean biogeochemistry model that includes carbon and nutrient inputs from rivers and coastal erosion to produce twenty-first-century pan-Arctic projections. Surprisingly, even with an anticipated rise in primary production across a wide range of emission scenarios, our findings indicate that climate change will lead to a counterintuitive 40% reduction in the efficiency of the Arctic’s biological carbon pump by 2100, to which terrigenous inputs contribute 10%. Terrigenous inputs will also drive intense coastal CO2 outgassing, reducing the Arctic Ocean’s carbon sink by at least 10% (33 TgC yr−1). These unexpected reinforced feedback, mostly due to accelerated remineralization rates, lower the Arctic Ocean’s capacity for sequestering carbon.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02233-6

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