Mitigation policies interactions delay the achievement of carbon neutrality in China

Yu Liu (), Mingxi Du (), Lingyu Yang, Qi Cui (), Yawen Liu, Xinbei Li, Nenggao Zhu, Ying Li, Chen Jiang, Peng Zhou, Qiuyu Liu and Canfei He
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Yu Liu: Peking University
Mingxi Du: Xi’an Jiaotong University
Lingyu Yang: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Qi Cui: China University of Petroleum
Yawen Liu: University of International Business and Economics
Xinbei Li: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Nenggao Zhu: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Ying Li: Chinese Academy of Personnel Science
Chen Jiang: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences
Peng Zhou: China University of Petroleum
Qiuyu Liu: Xi’an Jiaotong University
Canfei He: Peking University

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 2, 147-152

Abstract: Abstract The achievement of China’s carbon neutrality is crucial for the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement and must involve the implementation of various mitigation policies. However, these efforts are hindered by poor knowledge of the interactions between policies. Here we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China (CEEGE model) and create a policy portfolio area of 1,295 scenarios covering four major mitigation strategies (carbon pricing, energy efficiency, renewable energy and electrification of end uses). When the interactions between mitigation policies are considered, the percentage of scenarios in which the carbon neutrality target is reached by 2060 decreases by 84%, with the years in which these scenarios are achieved being delayed by 5–6 years. Only the combinations with renewable energy and electrification of end uses generate synergetic effects on both economic and mitigation impacts. Our work can inform the formulation of more efficient mitigation policy portfolios by emphasizing policy interactions.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02237-2

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