A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit

Emanuele Bevacqua (), Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Jakob Zscheischler
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Emanuele Bevacqua: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Jakob Zscheischler: Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research–UFZ

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 3, 262-265

Abstract: Abstract The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9

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