Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold

Alex J. Cannon ()
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Alex J. Cannon: Environment and Climate Change Canada

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 3, 266-269

Abstract: Abstract June 2024 was the twelfth month in a row with global mean surface temperatures at least 1.5 °C above pre-industrial conditions, but it is not clear if this implies a failure to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting long-term warming below this threshold. Here we show that in climate model simulations, the long-term Paris Agreement target is usually crossed well before such a string of unusually warm temperatures occurs.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02247-8

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