Intensified Atlantic multidecadal variability in a warming climate

Shujun Li (), Lixin Wu, Yiting Wang, Tao Geng, Wenju Cai, Bolan Gan, Zhao Jing and Yun Yang
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Shujun Li: Ocean University of China
Lixin Wu: Ocean University of China
Yiting Wang: Ocean University of China
Tao Geng: Laoshan Laboratory
Wenju Cai: Ocean University of China
Bolan Gan: Ocean University of China
Zhao Jing: Ocean University of China
Yun Yang: Beijing Normal University

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 3, 293-300

Abstract: Abstract The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is a basin-scale mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic, exerting a global impact, including contribution to the multidecadal Sahel drought and subsequent recovery and the post-1998 global warming hiatus. How greenhouse warming affects AMV remains unclear. Here, using models with multicentury-long outputs of future climate, we find an intensified AMV under greenhouse warming. Surface warming and freshwater input from sea-ice melt increase surface buoyancy, leading to a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Reduced vertical mixing associated with suppressed oceanic deep convection results in a thinned mixed layer and its variability, favouring stronger AMV SST variability. Further, a weakened AMOC and the associated northward heat transport prolong the lifespan of the AMV, providing a long time for the AMV to grow. Thus, multidecadal global surface fluctuations and the associated climate extremes are likely to be more intense.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02252-x

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