Tracing inclusivity at UNFCCC conferences through side events and interest group dynamics

Judy Jingwei Xie (), Nora Alessandra Escher, Matilda E. Dunn, Yurong Yu, Iain Staffell and Joeri Rogelj
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Judy Jingwei Xie: Imperial College London
Nora Alessandra Escher: Imperial College London
Matilda E. Dunn: Imperial College London
Yurong Yu: Imperial College London
Iain Staffell: Imperial College London
Joeri Rogelj: Imperial College London

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 3, 270-278

Abstract: Abstract Inclusivity and transparency are the foundations of procedural justice in climate governance. However, concerns persist around the influence of business interest groups at United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conferences of Parties (COPs). COPs have increased in size and complexity, obscuring agendas and organizational relationships. Here we analyse the discourse and networks of actors at COP side events from 2003 to 2023 using machine learning-based topic modelling and social network analysis. We trace how discussions on energy, food and forests have evolved. Focusing on energy topics, we show that fossil fuel lobbyists gain COP access through developed-country business non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and developing-country governments. Their nominators focus on renewable energy and system approaches but are peripheral in the anti-fossil fuel discourse which grew from a collaborative network of environmental NGOs. Despite data availability challenges, systematically tracing the inclusivity of COP processes can uncover power dynamics at the highest levels of climate governance.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02254-9

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