Worldwide rooftop photovoltaic electricity generation may mitigate global warming

Zhixin Zhang, Zhen Qian, Min Chen (), Rui Zhu, Fan Zhang, Teng Zhong, Jian Lin, Liang Ning, Wei Xie, Felix Creutzig, Wenjun Tang, Laibao Liu, Jiachuan Yang, Ye Pu, Wenjia Cai, Yingxia Pu, Deer Liu, Hui Yang, Hongjun Su, Mingyue Lu, Fei Li, Xufeng Cui, Zhiwei Xie, Tianyu Sheng, Kai Zhang, Paolo Santi, Lixin Tian, Guonian Lü and Jinyue Yan
Additional contact information
Zhixin Zhang: Nanjing Normal University
Zhen Qian: Nanjing Normal University
Min Chen: Nanjing Normal University
Rui Zhu: Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)
Fan Zhang: Peking University
Teng Zhong: Nanjing Normal University
Jian Lin: Nanjing Normal University
Liang Ning: Nanjing Normal University
Wei Xie: Nanjing Normal University
Felix Creutzig: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Wenjun Tang: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Laibao Liu: The University of Hong Kong
Jiachuan Yang: The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
Ye Pu: Chinese Academy of Sciences
Wenjia Cai: Tsinghua University
Yingxia Pu: Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application
Deer Liu: Jiangxi University of Science and Technology
Hui Yang: China University of Mining and Technology
Hongjun Su: Hohai University
Mingyue Lu: Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
Fei Li: Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
Xufeng Cui: Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
Zhiwei Xie: Shenyang Jianzhu University
Tianyu Sheng: Nanjing Normal University
Kai Zhang: Nanjing Normal University
Paolo Santi: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Lixin Tian: Jiangsu University
Guonian Lü: Nanjing Normal University
Jinyue Yan: Kowloon

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 4, 393-402

Abstract: Abstract Rooftop photovoltaic (RPV) is often understood as a niche contribution to climate change mitigation. However, the global potential of RPVs to mitigate global warming is unknown. Here we map the global rooftop area at 1-km resolution, quantifying 286,393 km2 of rooftops worldwide through geospatial data mining and artificial intelligence techniques. Using nine advanced Earth system models from the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6, we reveal that RPVs could substantially contribute to reducing global temperatures by 0.05–0.13 °C before 2050. Region-specific analysis underscores the variability in RPV potential and the necessity of tailored approaches to optimize RPV deployment, considering local solar resources, existing infrastructure and grid carbon intensity. Our findings reveal that leveraging RPV systems offers a viable and impactful strategy for reducing carbon footprints and combating climate change globally, while advocating targeted interventions to enhance the benefits of RPVs, particularly in areas with high solar radiation or rapid urbanization.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02276-3

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