Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude

D. M. Smith (), N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, S. C. Hardiman, L. Hermanson, A. A. Scaife and M. Seabrook
Additional contact information
D. M. Smith: Met Office Hadley Centre
N. J. Dunstone: Met Office Hadley Centre
R. Eade: Met Office Hadley Centre
S. C. Hardiman: Met Office Hadley Centre
L. Hermanson: Met Office Hadley Centre
A. A. Scaife: Met Office Hadley Centre
M. Seabrook: Met Office Hadley Centre

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 4, 403-410

Abstract: Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dominates winters in Western Europe and eastern North America. Future climate model projections of the NAO are highly uncertain due to both modelled irreducible internal variability and different model responses. Here we show that some of the model spread in multi-decadal NAO simulations is caused by climatological water vapour errors, and develop an emergent constraint that reveals a substantial response of the NAO to volcanic eruptions and greenhouse gases (GHGs). Taking account of the signal-to-noise paradox apparent in these simulations suggests that under the high-emissions scenario the multi-decadal NAO will increase to unprecedented levels that will likely cause severe impacts, including increased flooding and storm damage. This can be avoided through mitigation to reduce GHG emissions. Our results suggest that taking model projections at face value and seeking consensus could leave society unprepared for impending extremes.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02277-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02277-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02277-2

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Climate Change is currently edited by Bronwyn Wake

More articles in Nature Climate Change from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().