Heterogeneous pressure on croplands from land-based strategies to meet the 1.5 °C target

Peichao Gao, Yifan Gao, Yang Ou, Haewon McJeon (), Gokul Iyer, Sijing Ye, Xiaofan Yang and Changqing Song ()
Additional contact information
Peichao Gao: Beijing Normal University
Yifan Gao: Beijing Normal University
Yang Ou: Peking University
Haewon McJeon: Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology
Gokul Iyer: University of Maryland
Sijing Ye: Beijing Normal University
Xiaofan Yang: Beijing Normal University
Changqing Song: Beijing Normal University

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 4, 420-427

Abstract: Abstract Achieving the 1.5 °C target outlined in the Paris Agreement necessitates coordinated global efforts, particularly in the form of ambitious climate pledges. While current discussions primarily focus on energy and emissions pathways, the fine-scale, location-specific consequences for agriculture, land systems and sustainability remain uncertain. Here we evaluate global land-system responses at 5-km2 resolution in pursuit of the 1.5 °C target through recent country-specific climate pledges. Contrary to previous studies predicting cropland expansion under a 1.5 °C scenario, we reveal a 12.8% reduction in cropland area when accounting for cross-sectoral impacts of climate pledges and land-use intensity. The reduction is most pronounced in South America (23.7%), with the global south comprising 81% of the countries worldwide expected to experience cropland loss. Food security in the Global South faces additional pressure due to a projected 12.6% reduction in export potential from the global north.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02294-1 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02294-1

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02294-1

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Climate Change is currently edited by Bronwyn Wake

More articles in Nature Climate Change from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().