China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated

Yakun Zhu, Xiaosheng Xia, Josep G. Canadell, Shilong Piao, Xinqing Lu, Umakant Mishra, Xuhui Wang, Wenping Yuan () and Zhangcai Qin ()
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Yakun Zhu: Sun Yat-Sen University
Xiaosheng Xia: Sun Yat-Sen University
Josep G. Canadell: CSIRO Environment
Shilong Piao: Peking University
Xinqing Lu: Sun Yat-Sen University
Umakant Mishra: Sandia National Laboratories
Xuhui Wang: Peking University
Wenping Yuan: Peking University
Zhangcai Qin: Sun Yat-Sen University

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 4, 428-435

Abstract: Abstract The size and attribution of the regional net carbon flux from land-use change (LUC) activities (ELUC) are often highly debated, especially in regions such as China, which has experienced decades-long extensive reforestation activities. Here, using a LUC dataset incorporating remote-sensing and national forest inventory data with two modelling approaches, we show that ELUC in China shifted from a carbon source to a sink in the 1990s, contributing to a net cumulative CO2 removal of 2.0 Pg C during 1981–2020. From 2001 to 2020, the average ELUC was −0.14 Pg C yr−1, accounting for over one-third of the national land carbon sinks. Forest-related LUC activities contributed greatly to national carbon fluxes, while non-forest-related activities played a dominant role in certain areas. Our findings suggest that the carbon sinks from LUC activities in China may be largely underestimated in global assessments, underscoring the need to develop region-specific modelling for evaluation and potential regulation.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02296-z

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