Regional conditions determine thresholds of accelerated Antarctic basal melt in climate projection

Pengyang Song (), Patrick Scholz, Gregor Knorr, Dmitry Sidorenko, Ralph Timmermann and Gerrit Lohmann
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Pengyang Song: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Patrick Scholz: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Gregor Knorr: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Dmitry Sidorenko: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Ralph Timmermann: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research
Gerrit Lohmann: Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 5, 521-527

Abstract: Abstract Antarctic basal melt is crucial for the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and ocean circulation. However, few Earth system models explicitly simulate ice-shelf cavities. Here, using an Earth system model with interactive Antarctic ice-shelf cavities, we show that regional hydrography and topography determine a cavity tipping point. The Filchner–Ronne ice-shelf cavity will encounter such a tipping point with abrupt warm-water intrusion, rapid basal melt increase and massive freshwater release in response to increasing CO2 levels within this century. Conversely, the Ross Ice Shelf shows a more gradual response. Our results also suggest that previous ice-sheet modelling overestimated future ice-shelf melt, highlighting the need for comprehensive Earth system models with interactive ice-sheet dynamics and cavities for better climate projections.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02306-0

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