Increasing burden of poor mental health attributable to high temperature in Australia

Jingwen Liu, Blesson M. Varghese, Alana Hansen, Keith Dear, Geoffrey Morgan, Timothy Driscoll, Ying Zhang, Vanessa Prescott, Vergil Dolar, Michelle Gourley, Anthony Capon and Peng Bi ()
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Jingwen Liu: The University of Adelaide
Blesson M. Varghese: The University of Adelaide
Alana Hansen: The University of Adelaide
Keith Dear: The University of Adelaide
Geoffrey Morgan: The University of Sydney
Timothy Driscoll: The University of Sydney
Ying Zhang: The University of Sydney
Vanessa Prescott: Australia Institute of Health and Welfare
Vergil Dolar: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
Michelle Gourley: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
Anthony Capon: Monash University
Peng Bi: The University of Adelaide

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 5, 489-496

Abstract: Abstract High-temperature exposure has important implications for mental and behavioural disorders (MBDs), which could lead to increased risks under climate change. However, knowledge gaps exist in quantifying the attributable burden. Here we assessed the burden of MBDs attributable to temperatures above the location-specific thresholds from 2003 to 2018 using disability-adjusted life years and projected future burdens under the climate scenarios representative concentration pathways RCP 4.5 and 8.5 across Australia, considering various climatic, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We show that high temperatures contributed to an annual loss of 8,458 disability-adjusted life years, representing 1.8% of total MBD burden in Australia. Our findings project a consistent upward trend in the high-temperature-attributable burden of MBDs over time. Specifically, this burden is expected to increase by 11.0–17.2% in the 2030s and by 27.5–48.9% in the 2050s compared to the baseline. Our study underscores the need for both adaptation and mitigation strategies to counteract the adverse effects of warming climate on mental health.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02309-x

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