Observations reveal changing coastal storm extremes around the United States

Joao Morim (), Thomas Wahl, D. J. Rasmussen, Francisco M. Calafat, Sean Vitousek, Soenke Dangendorf, Robert E. Kopp and Michael Oppenheimer
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Joao Morim: University of Central Florida
Thomas Wahl: University of Central Florida
D. J. Rasmussen: Princeton University
Francisco M. Calafat: National Oceanography Centre
Sean Vitousek: USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Soenke Dangendorf: Tulane University School of Science & Engineering
Robert E. Kopp: Rutgers University
Michael Oppenheimer: Princeton University

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 5, 538-545

Abstract: Abstract Understanding extreme storm surge events that threaten low-lying coastal communities is key to effective flood mitigation/adaptation measures. However, observational estimates are sparse and highly uncertain along most coastal regions with a lack of observational evidence about long-term underlying trends and their contribution to overall extreme sea-level changes. Here, using a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical framework, we analyse US tide gauge record for 1950–2020 and find that observational estimates have underestimated likelihoods of storm surge extremes at 85% of tide gauge sites nationwide. Additionally, and contrary to prevailing beliefs, storm surge extremes show spatially coherent trends along many widespread coastal areas, providing evidence of changing coastal storm intensity in the historical monitoring period. Several hotspots exist with regionally significant storm surge trends that are comparable to trends in mean sea-level rise and its key components. Our findings challenge traditional coastal design/planning practices that rely on estimates from discrete observations and assume stationarity in surge extremes.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02315-z

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