Assessing risk of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate

Jessica A. Rowland (), Emily Nicholson, José R. Ferrer-Paris, David A. Keith, Nicholas J. Murray, Chloe F. Sato, Anikó B. Tóth, Arn Tolsma, Susanna Venn, Marianne V. Asmüssen, Patricio Pliscoff, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Rebecca E. Lester and Tracey J. Regan
Additional contact information
Jessica A. Rowland: Deakin University
Emily Nicholson: Deakin University
José R. Ferrer-Paris: IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management
David A. Keith: IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management
Nicholas J. Murray: James Cook University
Chloe F. Sato: Deakin University
Anikó B. Tóth: University of New South Wales
Arn Tolsma: Environment and Climate Action
Susanna Venn: Deakin University
Marianne V. Asmüssen: IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management
Patricio Pliscoff: Universidad de Los Andes
Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio: George Mason University
Rebecca E. Lester: Deakin University
Tracey J. Regan: The University of Melbourne

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 6, 597-609

Abstract: Abstract Climate change affects ecosystems globally, but their diversity and complexity make it difficult to estimate how severe these impacts are. Here we discuss how to conceptualize the effects of climate change on ecosystems so that they can be reliably captured in ecosystem risk assessments, focusing on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Ecosystems, a headline indicator for the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We highlight key challenges and propose solutions, which include using diverse teams, conceptual models and data sources (including projections), learning from analogous ecosystems, and evaluating uncertainties. This approach will improve the capacity to produce reliable assessments of risk under climate change to inform timely and effective conservation.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02324-y

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