Managing for climate and production goals on crop-lands

Shelby C. McClelland (), Deborah Bossio, Doria R. Gordon, Johannes Lehmann, Matthew N. Hayek, Stephen M. Ogle, Jonathan Sanderman, Stephen A. Wood, Yi Yang and Dominic Woolf ()
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Shelby C. McClelland: Cornell University
Deborah Bossio: The Nature Conservancy
Doria R. Gordon: Environmental Defense Fund
Johannes Lehmann: Cornell University
Matthew N. Hayek: New York University
Stephen M. Ogle: Colorado State University
Jonathan Sanderman: Woodwell Climate Research Center
Stephen A. Wood: The Nature Conservancy
Yi Yang: Colorado State University
Dominic Woolf: Cornell University

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 6, 642-649

Abstract: Abstract The assumption that crop-land natural climate solutions (NCS) have benefits for both climate change mitigation and crop production remains largely untested. Here we model GHG emissions and crop yields from crop-land NCS through the end of the century. We find that favourable (win–win) outcomes were the exception not the norm; grass cover crops with no tillage lead to cumulative global GHG mitigation of 32.6 Pg CO2 equivalent, 95% confidence interval (29.5, 35.7), by 2050 but reduce cumulative crop yields by 4.8 Pg, 95% confidence interval (4.0, 5.7). Legume cover crops with no tillage result in favourable outcomes through 2050 but increase GHG emissions for some regions by 2100. Crop-lands with low soil nitrogen and high clay are more likely to have favourable outcomes. Avoiding crop losses, we find modest GHG mitigation benefits from crop-land NCS, 4.4 Pg CO2 equivalent, 95% confidence interval (4.2, 4.6) by 2050, indicating crop-land soil will constitute a fraction of food system decarbonization.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02337-7

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