Reconsidering space-for-time substitution in climate change ecology

Margaret E. K. Evans (), Peter B. Adler, Amy L. Angert, Sharmila M. N. Dey, Martin P. Girardin, Kelly A. Heilman, Stefan Klesse, Daniel L. Perret, Dov F. Sax, Seema N. Sheth, Michael Stemkovski and Jennifer L. Williams
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Margaret E. K. Evans: University of Arizona
Peter B. Adler: Utah State University
Amy L. Angert: University of British Columbia
Sharmila M. N. Dey: Harvard University
Martin P. Girardin: Laurentian Forestry Centre
Kelly A. Heilman: Oak Ridge Associated Universities
Stefan Klesse: Research Unit Forest Dynamics
Daniel L. Perret: Oak Ridge Associated Universities
Dov F. Sax: Brown University
Seema N. Sheth: North Carolina State University
Michael Stemkovski: Utah State University
Jennifer L. Williams: University of British Columbia

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 8, 809-812

Abstract: Ecologists often leverage patterns observed across spatial climate gradients to predict the impacts of climate change (space-for-time substitution). We highlight evidence that this can be misleading not just in the magnitude but in the direction of effects, explain why, and make suggestions for improving the reliability of ecological forecasts.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02392-0

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