Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023

Jens Daniel Müller (), Nicolas Gruber, Aline Schneuwly, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Marion Gehlen, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer and Galen A. McKinley
Additional contact information
Jens Daniel Müller: ETH Zurich
Nicolas Gruber: ETH Zurich
Aline Schneuwly: ETH Zurich
Dorothee C. E. Bakker: University of East Anglia
Marion Gehlen: Université Paris-Saclay
Luke Gregor: ETH Zurich
Judith Hauck: Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Peter Landschützer: Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ)
Galen A. McKinley: Columbia University and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 9, 978-985

Abstract: Abstract In 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) reached record highs, partly due to a strong El Niño. Based on historical responses to elevated global mean SSTs, oceanic CO2 uptake in 2023 should have increased (−0.11 ± 0.04 PgC yr−1), driven by reduced outgassing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, using observation-based estimates of ocean CO2 fugacity, we show here that the global non-polar ocean absorbed about 10% less CO2 than expected (+0.17 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1). This weakening was caused by the anomalous outgassing of CO2 in the subtropical and subpolar regions, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, driven primarily by elevated SSTs reducing the solubility of CO2. In most regions, this SST-induced outgassing was mitigated by the depletion of dissolved inorganic carbon in the surface mixed layer. Such negative feedbacks caused an overall muted response of the ocean carbon sink to the record-high SSTs, but this resilience may not persist under long-term warming or more severe SST extremes.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02380-4 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcli:v:15:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-025-02380-4

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02380-4

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Climate Change is currently edited by Bronwyn Wake

More articles in Nature Climate Change from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().