Current and future methane emissions from boreal-Arctic wetlands and lakes

McKenzie Kuhn (), David Olefeldt, Kyle A. Arndt, David Bastviken, Lori Bruhwiler, Patrick Crill, Tonya DelSontro, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Guido Grosse, Mikael Hovemyr, Gustaf Hugelius, Sally MacIntyre, Avni Malhotra, A. David McGuire, Youmi Oh, Benjamin Poulter, Claire C. Treat, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ruth K. Varner, Katey M. Walter Anthony, Jennifer D. Watts and Zhen Zhang
Additional contact information
McKenzie Kuhn: University of Alberta
David Olefeldt: University of Alberta
Kyle A. Arndt: Woodwell Climate Research Center
David Bastviken: Linköping University
Lori Bruhwiler: NOAA
Patrick Crill: Stockholm University
Tonya DelSontro: University of Waterloo
Etienne Fluet-Chouinard: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Guido Grosse: Permafrost Research Section
Mikael Hovemyr: Stockholm University
Gustaf Hugelius: Stockholm University
Sally MacIntyre: University of California at Santa Barbara
Avni Malhotra: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
A. David McGuire: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Youmi Oh: NOAA
Benjamin Poulter: Spark Climate Solutions
Claire C. Treat: Permafrost Research Section
Merritt R. Turetsky: University of Colorado
Ruth K. Varner: Stockholm University
Katey M. Walter Anthony: University of Alaska Fairbanks
Jennifer D. Watts: Woodwell Climate Research Center
Zhen Zhang: Chinese Academy of Sciences

Nature Climate Change, 2025, vol. 15, issue 9, 986-991

Abstract: Abstract Methane emissions from the boreal-Arctic region are likely to increase due to warming and permafrost thaw, but the magnitude of increase is unconstrained. Here we show that distinguishing several wetland and lake classes improves our understanding of current and future methane emissions. Our estimate of net annual methane emission (1988–2019) was 34 (95% CI: 25–43) Tg CH4 yr−1, dominated by five wetland (26 Tg CH4 yr−1) and seven lake (5.7 Tg CH4 yr−1) classes. Our estimate was lower than previous estimates due to explicit characterization of low methane-emitting wetland and lake classes, for example, permafrost bogs, bogs, large lakes and glacial lakes. To reduce uncertainty further, improved wetland maps and further measurements of wetland winter emissions and lake ebullition are needed. Methane emissions were estimated to increase by ~31% under a moderate warming scenario (SSP2-4.5 by 2100), driven primarily by warming rather than permafrost thaw.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02413-y

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