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Asymmetric European summer heat predictability from wet and dry southern winters and springs

Benjamin Quesada (), Robert Vautard, Pascal Yiou, Martin Hirschi and Sonia I. Seneviratne
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Benjamin Quesada: LSCE, IPSL, CEA, UVSQ, Orme des merisiers
Robert Vautard: LSCE, IPSL, CEA, UVSQ, Orme des merisiers
Pascal Yiou: LSCE, IPSL, CEA, UVSQ, Orme des merisiers
Martin Hirschi: Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss
Sonia I. Seneviratne: ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science

Nature Climate Change, 2012, vol. 2, issue 10, 736-741

Abstract: Increased summer heatwaves are a likely feature of future European climate. This study shows that wet previous seasons inhibit summer heat events, thus increasing seasonal predictability, but dry previous seasons do not, therefore decreasing seasonal predictability. Models suggest that a similar relation should hold in the future.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1536

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