Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains

Kelly Mahoney (), Michael A. Alexander, Gregory Thompson, Joseph J. Barsugli and James D. Scott
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Kelly Mahoney: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, (Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise Fellowship Program/NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory and US Bureau of Reclamation)
Michael A. Alexander: NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory
Gregory Thompson: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Joseph J. Barsugli: NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado
James D. Scott: NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, and CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center

Nature Climate Change, 2012, vol. 2, issue 2, 125-131

Abstract: Abstract The effect of a warming climate on hailstorm frequency and intensity is largely unknown. Global climate models have too coarse resolution to simulate hailstorms explicitly; thus it is unclear if a warmer climate will change hailstorm frequency and intensity, and if so, whether such events will become more likely through intensified thunderstorms or less likely owing to overall warmer conditions. Here we investigate hail generation and maintenance for warm-season extreme precipitation events in Colorado, USA, for both present-day and projected future climates using high-resolution model simulations capable of resolving hailstorms. Most simulations indicate a near-elimination of hail at the surface in future simulations for this region, despite more intense future storms and significantly larger amounts of hail generated in-cloud. An increase in the height of the environmental melting level due to climate warming is found to be the primary reason for the disappearance of surface hail, as the warmer atmosphere increases the melting of frozen precipitation. A decrease in future surface hail at high-elevation locations may imply potential changes in both hail damage and flood risk.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1344

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