Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change

Stefan Dullinger (), Andreas Gattringer, Wilfried Thuiller, Dietmar Moser, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Antoine Guisan, Wolfgang Willner, Christoph Plutzar, Michael Leitner, Thomas Mang, Marco Caccianiga, Thomas Dirnböck, Siegrun Ertl, Anton Fischer, Jonathan Lenoir, Jens-Christian Svenning, Achilleas Psomas, Dirk R. Schmatz, Urban Silc, Pascal Vittoz and Karl Hülber
Additional contact information
Stefan Dullinger: Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
Andreas Gattringer: Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
Wilfried Thuiller: Université Grenoble I, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine
Dietmar Moser: Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
Niklaus E. Zimmermann: Landscape Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL
Antoine Guisan: University of Lausanne
Wolfgang Willner: Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
Christoph Plutzar: Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
Michael Leitner: Faculty of Physics, University of Vienna
Thomas Mang: Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
Marco Caccianiga: Università degli Studi di Milano
Thomas Dirnböck: Environment Agency Austria
Siegrun Ertl: Faculty Centre of Biodiversity, University of Vienna
Anton Fischer: Geobotany, Center of Life and Food Sciences, Technische Universität München
Jonathan Lenoir: Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity Group, Aarhus University
Jens-Christian Svenning: Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity Group, Aarhus University
Achilleas Psomas: Landscape Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL
Dirk R. Schmatz: Landscape Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL
Urban Silc: Institute of Biology Zrc Sazu, Novi trg 2
Pascal Vittoz: University of Lausanne
Karl Hülber: Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses

Nature Climate Change, 2012, vol. 2, issue 8, 619-622

Abstract: Using information on current species distributions and dispersal traits, this study forecasts climate-driven range dynamics of plant species across the European Alps. Simulations predict moderate range contractions over the twenty-first century; however, more severe effects of climate warming on mountain plant diversity are expected in the longer term.

Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1514

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