Observed and predicted effects of climate change on species abundance in protected areas

Alison Johnston (), Malcolm Ausden, Andrew M. Dodd, Richard B. Bradbury, Dan E. Chamberlain, Frédéric Jiguet, Chris D. Thomas, Aonghais S. C. P. Cook, Stuart E. Newson, Nancy Ockendon, Mark M. Rehfisch (), Staffan Roos (), Chris B. Thaxter, Andy Brown, Humphrey Q. P. Crick, Andrew Douse, Rob A. McCall, Helen Pontier, David A. Stroud, Bernard Cadiou, Olivia Crowe, Bernard Deceuninck, Menno Hornman and James W. Pearce-Higgins
Additional contact information
Alison Johnston: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery
Malcolm Ausden: Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Andrew M. Dodd: Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Richard B. Bradbury: Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Dan E. Chamberlain: DBIOS, Università di Torino
Frédéric Jiguet: UMR7204 MNHN-CNRS-UPMC, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, CRBPO
Chris D. Thomas: University of York
Aonghais S. C. P. Cook: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery
Stuart E. Newson: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery
Nancy Ockendon: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery
Mark M. Rehfisch: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery
Staffan Roos: British Trust for Ornithology Scotland, School of Natural Sciences, Cottrell Building, University of Stirling
Chris B. Thaxter: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery
Andy Brown: Natural England, Touthill Close, Unex House, Bourges Boulevard
Humphrey Q. P. Crick: Natural England, Eastbrook
Andrew Douse: Scottish Natural Heritage, Great Glen House
Rob A. McCall: Natural Resources Wales/Cyfoeth Naturiol Cymru, Welsh Assembly Government Building, Rhodfa Padarn
Helen Pontier: DEFRA, Zone 1/05B, Temple Quay House, Temple Quay
David A. Stroud: Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Monkstone House
Bernard Cadiou: GISOM, c/o Bretagne Vivante—SEPNB
Olivia Crowe: BirdWatch Ireland, 20D Bullford Business Campus
Bernard Deceuninck: Ligue pour la Protection des Oiseaux, Fonderies Royales—BP 90263
Menno Hornman: Sovon Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology
James W. Pearce-Higgins: British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery

Nature Climate Change, 2013, vol. 3, issue 12, 1055-1061

Abstract: Abstract The dynamic nature and diversity of species’ responses to climate change poses significant difficulties for developing robust, long-term conservation strategies. One key question is whether existing protected area networks will remain effective in a changing climate. To test this, we developed statistical models that link climate to the abundance of internationally important bird populations in northwestern Europe. Spatial climate–abundance models were able to predict 56% of the variation in recent 30-year population trends. Using these models, future climate change resulting in 4.0 °C global warming was projected to cause declines of at least 25% for more than half of the internationally important populations considered. Nonetheless, most EU Special Protection Areas in the UK were projected to retain species in sufficient abundances to maintain their legal status, and generally sites that are important now were projected to be important in the future. The biological and legal resilience of this network of protected areas is derived from the capacity for turnover in the important species at each site as species’ distributions and abundances alter in response to climate. Current protected areas are therefore predicted to remain important for future conservation in a changing climate.

Date: 2013
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2035 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:12:d:10.1038_nclimate2035

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/

DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2035

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Climate Change is currently edited by Bronwyn Wake

More articles in Nature Climate Change from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().