Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs

K. Frieler (), M. Meinshausen, A. Golly, M. Mengel, K. Lebek, S. D. Donner and O. Hoegh-Guldberg
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K. Frieler: Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
M. Meinshausen: Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
A. Golly: Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
M. Mengel: Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
K. Lebek: Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
S. D. Donner: University of British Columbia
O. Hoegh-Guldberg: Global Change Institute and ARC Centre for Excellence in Coral Reefs, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Brisbane

Nature Climate Change, 2013, vol. 3, issue 2, 165-170

Abstract: Abstract Mass coral bleaching events have become a widespread phenomenon causing serious concerns with regard to the survival of corals. Triggered by high ocean temperatures, bleaching events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity. Here, we provide a comprehensive global study of coral bleaching in terms of global mean temperature change, based on an extended set of emissions scenarios and models. We show that preserving >10% of coral reefs worldwide would require limiting warming to below 1.5 °C (atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) range: 1.3–1.8 °C) relative to pre-industrial levels. Even under optimistic assumptions regarding corals’ thermal adaptation, one-third (9–60%, 68% uncertainty range) of the world’s coral reefs are projected to be subject to long-term degradation under the most optimistic new IPCC emissions scenario, RCP3-PD. Under RCP4.5 this fraction increases to two-thirds (30–88%, 68% uncertainty range). Possible effects of ocean acidification reducing thermal tolerance are assessed within a sensitivity experiment.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1674

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