Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality

A. Park Williams (), Craig D. Allen, Alison K. Macalady, Daniel Griffin, Connie A. Woodhouse, David M. Meko, Thomas W. Swetnam, Sara A. Rauscher, Richard Seager, Henri D. Grissino-Mayer, Jeffrey S. Dean, Edward R. Cook, Chandana Gangodagamage, Michael Cai and Nate G. McDowell
Additional contact information
A. Park Williams: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Craig D. Allen: US Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Jemez Mountains Field Station
Alison K. Macalady: School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona
Daniel Griffin: School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona
Connie A. Woodhouse: School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona
David M. Meko: Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona
Thomas W. Swetnam: Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona
Sara A. Rauscher: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Richard Seager: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
Henri D. Grissino-Mayer: Laboratory of Tree-Ring Science, The University of Tennessee
Jeffrey S. Dean: Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona
Edward R. Cook: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University
Chandana Gangodagamage: Los Alamos National Laboratory
Michael Cai: Space Data Systems, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Nate G. McDowell: Los Alamos National Laboratory

Nature Climate Change, 2013, vol. 3, issue 3, 292-297

Abstract: Abstract As the climate changes, drought may reduce tree productivity and survival across many forest ecosystems; however, the relative influence of specific climate parameters on forest decline is poorly understood. We derive a forest drought-stress index (FDSI) for the southwestern United States using a comprehensive tree-ring data set representing AD 1000–2007. The FDSI is approximately equally influenced by the warm-season vapour-pressure deficit (largely controlled by temperature) and cold-season precipitation, together explaining 82% of the FDSI variability. Correspondence between the FDSI and measures of forest productivity, mortality, bark-beetle outbreak and wildfire validate the FDSI as a holistic forest-vigour indicator. If the vapour-pressure deficit continues increasing as projected by climate models, the mean forest drought-stress by the 2050s will exceed that of the most severe droughts in the past 1,000 years. Collectively, the results foreshadow twenty-first-century changes in forest structures and compositions, with transition of forests in the southwestern United States, and perhaps water-limited forests globally, towards distributions unfamiliar to modern civilization.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1693

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