Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate

Matthew J. Widlansky (), Axel Timmermann, Karl Stein, Shayne McGregor, Niklas Schneider, Matthew H. England, Matthieu Lengaigne and Wenju Cai
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Matthew J. Widlansky: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Axel Timmermann: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Karl Stein: University of Hawaii at Manoa
Shayne McGregor: Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales
Niklas Schneider: International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa
Matthew H. England: Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales
Matthieu Lengaigne: Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), IRD/UPMC/CNRS/MNHN
Wenju Cai: CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research-Aspendale

Nature Climate Change, 2013, vol. 3, issue 4, 417-423

Abstract: Abstract The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainband in the Southern Hemisphere and provides most of the rainfall to southwest Pacific island nations. In spite of various modelling efforts, it remains uncertain how the SPCZ will respond to greenhouse warming. Using a hierarchy of climate models we show that the uncertainty of SPCZ rainfall projections in present-generation climate models can be explained as a result of two competing mechanisms. Higher tropical sea surface temperatures lead to an overall increase of atmospheric moisture and rainfall whereas weaker sea surface temperature gradients dynamically shift the SPCZ northeastward and promote summer drying in areas of the southwest Pacific. On the basis of a multi-model ensemble of 76 greenhouse warming experiments and for moderate tropical warming of 1–2 °C we estimate a 6% decrease of SPCZ rainfall with a multi-model uncertainty exceeding ±20%. For stronger tropical warming exceeding 3 °C, a tendency for a wetter SPCZ region is identified.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1726

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