A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change

N. W. Arnell (), J. A. Lowe, S. Brown, S. N. Gosling, P. Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, B. Lloyd-Hughes, R. J. Nicholls, T. J. Osborn, T. M. Osborne, G. A. Rose, P. Smith and R. F. Warren
Additional contact information
N. W. Arnell: Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading
J. A. Lowe: Met Office Hadley Centre
S. Brown: University of Southampton
S. N. Gosling: University of Nottingham
P. Gottschalk: PIK, Potsdam
J. Hinkel: PIK, Potsdam
B. Lloyd-Hughes: Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading
R. J. Nicholls: University of Southampton
T. J. Osborn: University of East Anglia
T. M. Osborne: Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading
G. A. Rose: Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University of Reading
P. Smith: University of Aberdeen
R. F. Warren: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

Nature Climate Change, 2013, vol. 3, issue 5, 512-519

Abstract: Abstract This study presents the first global-scale multi-sectoral regional assessment of the magnitude and uncertainty in the impacts of climate change avoided by emissions policies. The analysis suggests that the most stringent emissions policy considered here—which gives a 50% chance of remaining below a 2 °C temperature rise target—reduces impacts by 20–65% by 2100 relative to a ‘business-as-usual’ pathway which reaches 4 °C, and can delay impacts by several decades. The effects of mitigation policies vary between sectors and regions, and only a few are noticeable by 2030. The impacts avoided by 2100 are more strongly influenced by the date and level at which emissions peak than the rate of decline of emissions, with an earlier and lower emissions peak avoiding more impacts. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided at the global scale is relatively robust despite uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change, but the absolute amount of avoided impacts is considerably more variable and therefore uncertain.

Date: 2013
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1793 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:5:d:10.1038_nclimate1793

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.nature.com/nclimate/

DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1793

Access Statistics for this article

Nature Climate Change is currently edited by Bronwyn Wake

More articles in Nature Climate Change from Nature
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().