Mixed responses of tropical Pacific fisheries and aquaculture to climate change

Johann D. Bell (), Alexandre Ganachaud, Peter C. Gehrke, Shane P. Griffiths, Alistair J. Hobday, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Johanna E. Johnson, Robert Le Borgne, Patrick Lehodey, Janice M. Lough, Richard J. Matear, Timothy D. Pickering, Morgan S. Pratchett, Alex Sen Gupta, Inna Senina and Michelle Waycott
Additional contact information
Johann D. Bell: Fisheries, Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Alexandre Ganachaud: Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
Peter C. Gehrke: SMEC Australia Pty Ltd, Level 1
Shane P. Griffiths: Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Alistair J. Hobday: Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Ove Hoegh-Guldberg: Global Change Institute, University of Queensland
Johanna E. Johnson: C2O Consulting and School of Environment, Science and Technology, Southern Cross University
Robert Le Borgne: Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
Patrick Lehodey: Collecte Localisation Satellites, 8-10 rue Hermes Parc Technologique de Canal
Janice M. Lough: Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3
Richard J. Matear: Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
Timothy D. Pickering: Fisheries, Secretariat of the Pacific Community
Morgan S. Pratchett: ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University
Alex Sen Gupta: Climate Change Research Centre, University of NSW
Inna Senina: Collecte Localisation Satellites, 8-10 rue Hermes Parc Technologique de Canal
Michelle Waycott: School of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Adelaide

Nature Climate Change, 2013, vol. 3, issue 6, 591-599

Abstract: Abstract Pacific Island countries have an extraordinary dependence on fisheries and aquaculture. Maintaining the benefits from the sector is a difficult task, now made more complex by climate change. Here we report how changes to the atmosphere–ocean are likely to affect the food webs, habitats and stocks underpinning fisheries and aquaculture across the region. We found winners and losers—tuna are expected to be more abundant in the east and freshwater aquaculture and fisheries are likely to be more productive. Conversely, coral reef fisheries could decrease by 20% by 2050 and coastal aquaculture may be less efficient. We demonstrate how the economic and social implications can be addressed within the sector—tuna and freshwater aquaculture can help support growing populations as coral reefs, coastal fisheries and mariculture decline.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1838

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