Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P. J.; Rötter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L. A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Müller, C.; Kumar, S. Naresh; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Osborne, T. M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J. W.; Williams, J. R.; Wolf, J.

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

S. Asseng (), F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J. W. Jones, J. L. Hatfield, A. C. Ruane, K. J. Boote, P. J. Thorburn, R. P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, P. K. Aggarwal, C. Angulo, P. Bertuzzi, C. Biernath, A. J. Challinor, J. Doltra, S. Gayler, R. Goldberg, R. Grant, L. Heng, J. Hooker, L. A. Hunt, J. Ingwersen, R. C. Izaurralde, K. C. Kersebaum, C. Müller, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Nendel, G. O’Leary, J. E. Olesen, T. M. Osborne, T. Palosuo, E. Priesack, D. Ripoche, M. A. Semenov, I. Shcherbak, P. Steduto, C. Stöckle, P. Stratonovitch, T. Streck, I. Supit, F. Tao, M. Travasso, K. Waha, D. Wallach, J. W. White, J. R. Williams and J. Wolf
Additional contact information
S. Asseng: University of Florida, Gainesville
F. Ewert: Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn
C. Rosenzweig: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
J. W. Jones: University of Florida, Gainesville
J. L. Hatfield: National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment
A. C. Ruane: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
K. J. Boote: University of Florida, Gainesville
P. J. Thorburn: CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences
R. P. Rötter: Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland
D. Cammarano: University of Florida, Gainesville
N. Brisson: INRA, UMR0211 Agronomie
B. Basso: Michigan State University East Lansing
P. Martre: INRA, UMR1095 Genetic, Diversity and Ecophysiology of Cererals (GDEC)
P. K. Aggarwal: CCAFS, IWMI, NASC Complex, DPS Marg
C. Angulo: Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn
P. Bertuzzi: INRA, US1116 AgroClim
C. Biernath: Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health
A. J. Challinor: Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
J. Doltra: Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre (CIFA)
S. Gayler: WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster, University of Tübingen
R. Goldberg: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
R. Grant: University of Alberta
L. Heng: IAEA, Vienna
J. Hooker: University of Reading
L. A. Hunt: University of Guelph
J. Ingwersen: Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Universität Hohenheim
R. C. Izaurralde: Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park
K. C. Kersebaum: Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
C. Müller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
S. Naresh Kumar: Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, IARI PUSA
C. Nendel: Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
G. O’Leary: Landscape and Water Sciences
J. E. Olesen: Aarhus University
T. M. Osborne: NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute, University of Reading
T. Palosuo: Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood Research Finland
E. Priesack: Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health
D. Ripoche: INRA, US1116 AgroClim
M. A. Semenov: Rothamsted Research
I. Shcherbak: Michigan State University East Lansing
P. Steduto: FAO
C. Stöckle: Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University
P. Stratonovitch: Rothamsted Research
T. Streck: Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Universität Hohenheim
I. Supit: Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University
F. Tao: Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Science
M. Travasso: Institute for Climate and Water, INTA-CIRN
K. Waha: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
D. Wallach: INRA, UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et développement territorial (AGIR)
J. W. White: Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center
J. R. Williams: Texas A&M University
J. Wolf: Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University

Nature Climate Change, 2013, vol. 3, issue 9, 827-832

Abstract: Large standardized model intercomparison projects enable the quantification of uncertainty in projecting the impacts of climate change. One of the largest studies so far indicates that individual crop models are able to simulate wheat yields accurately under a range of environments, but that differences between crop models are a major source of uncertainty.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1916

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