Seasonal aspects of the recent pause in surface warming

Kevin E. Trenberth (), John T. Fasullo, Grant Branstator and Adam S. Phillips
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Kevin E. Trenberth: National Center for Atmospheric Research
John T. Fasullo: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Grant Branstator: National Center for Atmospheric Research
Adam S. Phillips: National Center for Atmospheric Research

Nature Climate Change, 2014, vol. 4, issue 10, 911-916

Abstract: Abstract Factors involved in the recent pause in the rise of global mean temperatures are examined seasonally. For 1999 to 2012, the hiatus in surface warming is mainly evident in the central and eastern Pacific. It is manifested as strong anomalous easterly trade winds, distinctive sea-level pressure patterns, and large rainfall anomalies in the Pacific, which resemble the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These features are accompanied by upper tropospheric teleconnection wave patterns that extend throughout the Pacific, to polar regions, and into the Atlantic. The extratropical features are particularly strong during winter. By using an idealized heating to force a comprehensive atmospheric model, the large negative anomalous latent heating associated with the observed deficit in central tropical Pacific rainfall is shown to be mainly responsible for the global quasi-stationary waves in the upper troposphere. The wave patterns in turn created persistent regional climate anomalies, increasing the odds of cold winters in Europe. Hence, tropical Pacific forcing of the atmosphere such as that associated with a negative phase of the PDO produces many of the pronounced atmospheric circulation anomalies observed globally during the hiatus.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2341

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