Importance of food-demand management for climate mitigation

Bojana Bajželj (), Keith S. Richards, Julian M. Allwood, Pete Smith, John S. Dennis, Elizabeth Curmi and Christopher A. Gilligan
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Bojana Bajželj: University of Cambridge
Keith S. Richards: University of Cambridge
Julian M. Allwood: University of Cambridge
Pete Smith: Scottish Food Security Alliance-Crops and Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen
John S. Dennis: University of Cambridge
Elizabeth Curmi: University of Cambridge
Christopher A. Gilligan: University of Cambridge

Nature Climate Change, 2014, vol. 4, issue 10, 924-929

Abstract: Abstract Recent studies show that current trends in yield improvement will not be sufficient to meet projected global food demand in 2050, and suggest that a further expansion of agricultural area will be required. However, agriculture is the main driver of losses of biodiversity and a major contributor to climate change and pollution, and so further expansion is undesirable. The usual proposed alternative—intensification with increased resource use—also has negative effects. It is therefore imperative to find ways to achieve global food security without expanding crop or pastureland and without increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Some authors have emphasized a role for sustainable intensification in closing global ‘yield gaps’ between the currently realized and potentially achievable yields. However, in this paper we use a transparent, data-driven model, to show that even if yield gaps are closed, the projected demand will drive further agricultural expansion. There are, however, options for reduction on the demand side that are rarely considered. In the second part of this paper we quantify the potential for demand-side mitigation options, and show that improved diets and decreases in food waste are essential to deliver emissions reductions, and to provide global food security in 2050.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2353

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